[TheThinkTank] Reliable infection numbers

William Beasley wm.a.beasley at gmail.com
Fri Mar 13 07:24:57 PDT 2020


Jeff-
Our shop is a mess, too, and we'd like to clean up and get ready for Spring. But just to be clear -- as of late yesterday, Ohio has 5 _confirmed_ cases of COVID-19. That 100,000 figure is an estimate from the Ohio Department of Health as to how many folks in Ohio might currently be carrying the virus, based on statistically extrapolating a rate of community spread. Yes, it's serious, and we need to be taking aggressive steps, but keeping perspective is important. 

William Beasley
Elyria Bike Education Center

On 3/13/20, 10:07 AM, "Thethinktank on behalf of Jeff Potter" <thethinktank-bounces at lists.bikecollectives.org on behalf of jeff at outyourbackdoor.com> wrote:

    Thanks for the idea of leaving a pile of tubes and patches outside the door!
    
    I kinda like the idea of one worker in shop at a time.
    
    Our shop is a mess and we want to prep for spring here in Michigan. 
    
    We’re still sorting out how to respond. Yes, possible to spread if asymptomatic but very very unlikely? It spreads via cough/sneeze. If our core gang of 3, say, shows up and nobody is symptomatic it seems like we will be fine. 
    
    Ohio has 100k cases: high alert! MI has 2 cases known. Should MI be in a diff mode than OH? 
    
    Or should we all go to “stop all nonessential activity” mode to be safe? Tubes outside the shop can be done regardless — we have hundreds of excess tubes! 
    
    We’re talking 3 at a time — this is not a “big group.” It’s still doing social distancing but it’s not total isolation. We can use spray bottle w bleach to zap stuff to start. Not get close. 
    
    …Or should we do isolation? There are degrees in the isolation mode. Weekly groceries are essential. Keeping grocery open is not total isolation. Closing bike shop is not true isolation. So we’d stop all shop activity if that’s best. I’m in favor of over-responding now to do all we can to put the genie back in the bottle. Maybe for the next week or so? Adjust LATER. Go harder on the front end...
    
    Jeff Potter
    Lansing Bike Co-op
    Michigan
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